Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UCR +150 UCSD -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +12 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -4.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -2.8 (-9.2) | 140.6 (+1.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -1.4 (-10.6) | 137.1 (+4.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -2.0 (-10.0) | 140.2 (+1.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -2.4 (-9.6) | 141.6 (+0.4) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UCSD 66 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#222) | 4.4 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#212) | 0.40 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#212) | 0.59 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#215) | 0.518 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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