Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -300 UCR +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -12.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -8.0 (-7.0) | 138.4 (-7.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -9.7 (-8.7) | 138.0 (-7.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -10.1 (-9.1) | 138.9 (-7.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -10.3 (-9.3) | 139.3 (-8.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#112) | -4.8 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#149) | -0.88 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#140) | -0.94 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#160) | 0.448 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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