Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | WAKE -300 MIA +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -7.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -5.0 (-9.0) | 149.5 (-1.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -7.2 (-11.2) | 150.8 (-2.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -7.1 (-11.1) | 151.5 (-3.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -6.3 (-10.3) | 150.4 (-2.4) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIA 81 – 77 WAKE |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAKE 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WAKE 86 – 82 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MIA 74 – 72 WAKE |
| Feb 18, 2023 | MIA 96 – 87 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#26) | 7.2 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#38) | 1.79 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#40) | 2.20 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#58) | 0.585 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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