Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -305 WAKE +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -4.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.3 (-1.3) | 153.3 (-7.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -3.3 (-1.3) | 153.1 (-7.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -4.3 (-2.3) | 155.3 (-9.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.8 (-1.8) | 153.9 (-7.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIA 81 – 77 WAKE |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAKE 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WAKE 86 – 82 MIA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | MIA 96 – 87 WAKE |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MIA 76 – 72 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#47) | 5.8 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#16) | 1.29 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#13) | 1.75 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#18) | 0.540 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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