Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -112 MIA -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -1.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -1.0 (-5.0) | 150.6 (+7.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -1.5 (-2.5) | 148.1 (+9.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.3 (-2.7) | 150.7 (+7.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -0.9 (-3.1) | 152.4 (+5.6) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAKE 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WAKE 86 – 82 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MIA 74 – 72 WAKE |
| Feb 18, 2023 | MIA 96 – 87 WAKE |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MIA 76 – 72 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#60) | 15.4 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#65) | 2.13 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#72) | 2.94 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#62) | 0.553 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 51.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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