Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MIA +145 WAKE -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +10 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -1.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -2.1 (-7.9) | 140.8 (+25.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -0.1 (-9.9) | 141.2 (+24.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -1.9 (-8.1) | 140.9 (+25.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -1.4 (-8.6) | 140.7 (+25.3) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIA 81 – 77 WAKE |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WAKE 86 – 82 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MIA 74 – 72 WAKE |
| Feb 18, 2023 | MIA 96 – 87 WAKE |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MIA 76 – 72 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-10 | 13-3 |
| Away | 0-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#138) | 4.3 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#306) | 2.08 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#283) | 2.46 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#291) | 0.580 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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