Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -275 WAKE +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +9 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -7.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -6.8 (+2.2) | 159.3 (+23.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -7.2 (+1.8) | 156.7 (+26.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -7.4 (+1.6) | 159.4 (+23.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -6.7 (+2.3) | 161.6 (+21.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIA 81 – 77 WAKE |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAKE 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WAKE 86 – 82 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MIA 74 – 72 WAKE |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MIA 76 – 72 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#38) | 7.0 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#11) | 1.58 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#14) | 2.08 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#15) | 0.557 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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