Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.0 Over |
| Money | WAKE -180 MIA +152 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +4 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -3.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -2.9 (+1.1) | 153.1 (+14.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -2.7 (+1.3) | 153.4 (+14.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -2.7 (+1.3) | 153.8 (+14.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -3.4 (+0.6) | 155.0 (+13.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIA 81 – 77 WAKE |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAKE 88 – 78 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MIA 74 – 72 WAKE |
| Feb 18, 2023 | MIA 96 – 87 WAKE |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MIA 76 – 72 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 17-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#49) | 11.3 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#59) | 2.57 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#53) | 3.06 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#46) | 0.618 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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