Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.0 Push |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | INST -150 ILST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +3 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | INST -1.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-43.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.1 (+1.9) | 149.8 (-32.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -1.1 (+1.9) | 155.1 (-38.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.6 (+2.4) | 154.7 (-37.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.0 (+3.0) | 154.5 (-37.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#221) | -0.4 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#254) | -0.82 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#254) | -0.77 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#242) | 0.460 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 17.3% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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