Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | INST +220 ILST -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +5 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -8.6 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+38.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -8.1 (+13.1) | 140.6 (+42.4) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -8.8 (+13.8) | 142.4 (+40.6) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -8.2 (+13.2) | 137.8 (+45.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -8.3 (+13.3) | 138.5 (+44.5) | 21% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | INST 80 – 64 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#225) | 8.5 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#254) | 0.67 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#262) | 0.81 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#260) | 0.525 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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