We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Missouri Valley Conference · Hulman Center · January 15, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -6.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money INST +220 / ILST -270
Model Predictions
Spread Total INST win
Actual INST +5 183 Won
Massey ILST -8.6 (+13.6)
Massey Totals 145.0 (+38.0)
Bradley-Terry 27%
Weighted B-T 17%
Efficiency Plus ML ILST -8.8 (+13.8) 142.4 (+40.6) 22%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -8.2 (+13.2) 137.8 (+45.2) 21%
Baseline ML ILST -8.3 (+13.3) 138.5 (+44.5) 21%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -8.1 (+13.1) 140.6 (+42.4) 20%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 21, 2025 ILST 8565 INST
Feb 15, 2025 INST 8576 ILST
Jan 22, 2025 ILST 8581 INST
Feb 14, 2024 ILST 8067 INST
Feb 18, 2023 INST 8064 ILST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings INST ILST
Overall 11-21 23-13
Conference 4-16 12-8
Home 8-7 14-2
Away 3-12 7-7
Neutral 0-2 2-4
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.7 74.1
Avg Pts Against 75.1 69.1
Massey -3.6 (#225) 8.5 (#73)
Bradley-Terry -0.94 (#254) 0.67 (#114)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.45 (#262) 0.81 (#115)
RPI 0.454 (#260) 0.525 (#123)
Shooting & Four Factors INST ILST
FG% 43.7% 46.9%
3PT% 29.5% 34.4%
REB / G 34.3 36.8
OREB / G 8.6 10.2
AST / TO 1.27 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 54.0%
TOV% 18.2% 15.9%
ORB% 24.1% 30.1%
FT Rate 21.2% 23.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 17.8%
DRB% 68.2% 74.6%
Opp FT Rate 16.5% 23.8%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.