He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Missouri Valley Conference · CEFCU Arena · December 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -13.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Under
Money ILST -950 / INST +625
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILST win
Actual ILST +20 150 Won
Massey ILST -17.2 (+2.8)
Massey Totals 148.4 (+1.6)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 98%
Efficiency Plus ML ILST -15.0 (+5.0) 150.7 (-0.7) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -14.1 (+5.9) 144.7 (+5.3) 88%
Baseline ML ILST -15.1 (+4.9) 146.7 (+3.3) 88%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -17.0 (+3.0) 147.5 (+2.5) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 15, 2026 INST 9489 ILST
Feb 15, 2025 INST 8576 ILST
Jan 22, 2025 ILST 8581 INST
Feb 14, 2024 ILST 8067 INST
Feb 18, 2023 INST 8064 ILST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILST INST
Overall 23-13 11-21
Conference 12-8 4-16
Home 14-2 8-7
Away 7-7 3-12
Neutral 2-4 0-2
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.1 71.7
Avg Pts Against 69.1 75.1
Massey 9.2 (#69) -3.7 (#217)
Bradley-Terry 1.34 (#85) -0.70 (#237)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.61 (#90) -1.26 (#247)
RPI 0.557 (#88) 0.450 (#265)
Shooting & Four Factors ILST INST
FG% 47.7% 43.1%
3PT% 34.5% 28.8%
REB / G 36.8 35.6
OREB / G 10.5 8.9
AST / TO 1.32 1.23
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.0% 49.9%
TOV% 15.5% 18.4%
ORB% 30.9% 24.3%
FT Rate 24.6% 21.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 46.3%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 15.8%
DRB% 72.3% 65.6%
Opp FT Rate 22.1% 17.3%

Game Analysis

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