Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | INST -115 ILST -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -2.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -2.0 (+11.0) | 156.5 (+4.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -0.6 (+8.4) | 153.5 (+7.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -1.2 (+10.2) | 156.4 (+4.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -1.6 (+10.6) | 158.5 (+2.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | INST 80 – 64 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#220) | 2.2 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#196) | 0.49 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#205) | 0.51 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#209) | 0.518 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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