Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -300 INST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -10.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -10.9 (-6.9) | 153.3 (+12.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -7.4 (-3.4) | 153.5 (+12.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -8.6 (-4.6) | 156.3 (+9.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -9.4 (-5.4) | 155.4 (+10.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | INST 80 – 64 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#129) | -4.7 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#162) | -0.46 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#150) | -0.61 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#156) | 0.471 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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