Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | INST -4000 ILST +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -19.8 (-32.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -17.6 (-30.6) | 143.0 (+4.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -16.7 (-29.7) | 142.1 (+4.9) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -16.5 (-29.5) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -17.3 (-30.3) | 141.1 (+5.9) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | INST 80 – 64 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#22) | -2.7 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#9) | -0.39 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#15) | -0.42 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#26) | 0.473 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.5% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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