Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | INST -1400 ILST +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | INST -15.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -13.8 (+2.2) | 146.0 (-2.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -11.3 (+4.7) | 144.6 (-0.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -14.8 (+1.2) | 148.4 (-4.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -14.0 (+2.0) | 148.7 (-4.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#89) | -5.4 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#130) | -0.98 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#132) | -1.27 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#127) | 0.436 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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