Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -210 ARK +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -4.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.8 (-3.8) | 158.8 (-23.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.1 (-3.1) | 157.4 (-22.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -4.3 (-3.3) | 157.1 (-22.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.8 (-2.8) | 158.8 (-23.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ALA 117 – 115 ARK |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ALA 85 – 81 ARK |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALA 92 – 88 ARK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | ALA 86 – 83 ARK |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ALA 84 – 69 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 17-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#19) | 12.7 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#33) | 2.33 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#26) | 2.83 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#6) | 0.595 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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