Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 181.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -192 ARK +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +2 | 232 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -2.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 182.5 (+49.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.5 (-0.5) | 176.5 (+55.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.3 (-2.3) | 179.3 (+52.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.1 (-2.1) | 174.8 (+57.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.6 (-1.6) | 179.2 (+52.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2025 | ALA 85 – 81 ARK |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALA 92 – 88 ARK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | ALA 86 – 83 ARK |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ALA 84 – 69 ARK |
| Feb 12, 2022 | ALA 68 – 67 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 17-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#16) | 20.0 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#19) | 3.12 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#18) | 4.08 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#10) | 0.633 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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