Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +15 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -1.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -1.4 (-16.4) | 153.1 (-0.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -1.6 (-16.6) | 151.5 (+1.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -2.4 (-17.4) | 150.0 (+3.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.4 (-17.4) | 151.0 (+2.0) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ALA 117 – 115 ARK |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ALA 85 – 81 ARK |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALA 92 – 88 ARK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | ALA 86 – 83 ARK |
| Feb 12, 2022 | ALA 68 – 67 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 2-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#14) | 17.2 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#24) | 3.71 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#23) | 4.45 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#9) | 0.675 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 46.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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