Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -350 ARK +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +3 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -10.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -10.3 (-7.3) | 155.7 (+13.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -10.1 (-7.1) | 157.1 (+11.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -10.3 (-7.3) | 158.4 (+10.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -10.6 (-7.6) | 157.3 (+11.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ALA 117 – 115 ARK |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ALA 85 – 81 ARK |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALA 92 – 88 ARK |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ALA 84 – 69 ARK |
| Feb 12, 2022 | ALA 68 – 67 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#2) | 14.3 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#3) | 2.03 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.02 (#4) | 2.53 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#1) | 0.607 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 44.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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