Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | ARK +195 ALA -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +4 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -4.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.9 (-0.1) | 160.5 (+5.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.8 (+0.8) | 166.4 (-0.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.3 (-0.7) | 163.8 (+2.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -2.6 (-1.4) | 161.1 (+4.9) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ALA 117 – 115 ARK |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALA 92 – 88 ARK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | ALA 86 – 83 ARK |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ALA 84 – 69 ARK |
| Feb 12, 2022 | ALA 68 – 67 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#37) | 21.7 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#44) | 4.20 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#40) | 5.19 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#71) | 0.698 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 44.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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