Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1600 ARK +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +4 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -18.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -15.9 (-11.9) | 170.9 (+9.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -15.7 (-11.7) | 173.5 (+6.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -15.3 (-11.3) | 174.7 (+5.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -14.2 (-10.2) | 173.8 (+6.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ALA 117 – 115 ARK |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ALA 85 – 81 ARK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | ALA 86 – 83 ARK |
| Jan 12, 2023 | ALA 84 – 69 ARK |
| Feb 12, 2022 | ALA 68 – 67 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#7) | 3.9 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#18) | 1.02 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#16) | 1.23 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#11) | 0.537 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 34.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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