Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | ALST -450 UAPB +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -11.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -9.3 (-14.3) | 142.7 (+2.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -9.8 (-14.8) | 143.6 (+1.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -9.3 (-14.3) | 142.6 (+2.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -8.8 (-13.8) | 143.3 (+1.7) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-15 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#306) | -16.9 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#328) | -3.11 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#324) | -4.07 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#328) | 0.383 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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