Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -250 UAPB +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -9.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -5.9 (-11.9) | 145.8 (+8.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -7.2 (-13.2) | 149.4 (+4.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -6.8 (-12.8) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -6.8 (-12.8) | 143.4 (+10.6) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Jan 9, 2024 | ALST 83 – 72 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#289) | -13.2 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#267) | -1.83 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#278) | -2.55 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#245) | 0.417 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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