Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB +280 ALST -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -10.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -8.5 (-3.5) | 150.1 (-12.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -9.8 (-2.2) | 149.3 (-11.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -8.6 (-3.4) | 149.0 (-11.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -9.6 (-2.4) | 151.5 (-13.5) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
| Jan 9, 2024 | ALST 83 – 72 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-8 | 8-3 |
| Away | 2-17 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -22.1 (#363) | -8.4 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.21 (#362) | -1.38 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.50 (#362) | -2.13 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.315 (#364) | 0.431 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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