Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB -112 ALST -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +11 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -0.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -0.7 (+10.3) | 152.2 (+16.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -2.0 (+9.0) | 155.4 (+13.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -1.9 (+9.1) | 157.3 (+11.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -0.9 (+10.1) | 155.4 (+13.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
| Jan 9, 2024 | ALST 83 – 72 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-4 | 5-4 |
| Away | 6-14 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#328) | -8.1 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#235) | -1.34 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#230) | -1.97 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#139) | 0.462 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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