Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -175 UAPB +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -2.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.0 (+16.0) | 146.6 (-6.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -0.3 (+17.7) | 144.5 (-4.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.6 (+17.4) | 146.8 (-6.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.4 (+17.6) | 147.0 (-7.0) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
| Jan 9, 2024 | ALST 83 – 72 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#328) | -10.8 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#321) | -0.70 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#313) | -1.34 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#334) | 0.475 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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