Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -1400 UAPB +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +2 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -23.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -16.4 (-14.4) | 162.9 (+21.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -17.0 (-15.0) | 167.1 (+16.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -17.3 (-15.3) | 167.7 (+16.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -16.1 (-14.1) | 162.7 (+21.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
| Jan 9, 2024 | ALST 83 – 72 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#250) | -23.9 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#258) | -3.40 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#264) | -4.37 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#263) | 0.353 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 58.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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