Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB +100 ALST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +11 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -4.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.4 (-8.6) | 152.2 (+2.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -4.8 (-6.2) | 150.8 (+4.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -4.9 (-6.1) | 150.3 (+4.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -3.2 (-7.8) | 152.9 (+2.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#350) | -5.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#349) | -0.43 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.35 (#356) | -0.55 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#304) | 0.517 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 58.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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