Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +160 SDAK -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +8 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | SDAK -0.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -2.0 (-6.0) | 144.7 (+15.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -0.2 (-7.8) | 144.6 (+15.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -0.4 (-7.6) | 146.3 (+13.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -1.0 (-7.0) | 145.9 (+14.1) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#296) | -4.1 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#301) | -0.42 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#301) | -0.68 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#315) | 0.472 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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