Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | CHST +400 SHSU -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +13 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -9.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -9.5 (-3.5) | 132.1 (-1.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -8.2 (-4.8) | 136.7 (-5.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -8.0 (-5.0) | 136.5 (-5.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -8.2 (-4.8) | 135.6 (-4.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-15 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 64.3 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#339) | -0.1 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#325) | -0.02 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#336) | -0.10 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#329) | 0.511 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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