Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -150 HARV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -3.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -2.4 (+5.6) | 142.4 (+13.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -2.8 (+5.2) | 141.5 (+14.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -2.6 (+5.4) | 142.1 (+13.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -3.1 (+4.9) | 145.3 (+10.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PENN 62 – 60 HARV |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PENN 64 – 61 HARV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | HARV 64 – 63 PENN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HARV 79 – 78 PENN |
| Jan 20, 2025 | PENN 82 – 67 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#195) | -1.4 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#183) | -0.67 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#181) | -0.72 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#170) | 0.460 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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