Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | ARMY +160 NAVY -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +3 | 101 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -4.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -4.5 (+1.5) | 127.5 (-26.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.5 (+1.5) | 132.4 (-31.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.3 (+1.3) | 132.6 (-31.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -4.8 (+1.8) | 130.2 (-29.2) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NAVY 81 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 56 ARMY |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAVY 61 – 54 ARMY |
| Jan 26, 2025 | NAVY 66 – 53 ARMY |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARMY 69 – 67 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#285) | 1.0 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#266) | 0.02 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#276) | 0.20 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#248) | 0.503 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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