Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -475 DEP +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -6.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -7.3 (-4.3) | 139.9 (+9.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -7.8 (-4.8) | 137.6 (+11.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -7.8 (-4.8) | 138.1 (+10.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -6.1 (-3.1) | 138.7 (+10.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#47) | 6.4 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#1) | 1.29 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.11 (#10) | 1.67 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#3) | 0.525 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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