Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UML -160 UMBC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +17 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UML -1.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -0.3 (+16.7) | 140.7 (+18.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -0.9 (+16.1) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -0.3 (+16.7) | 142.0 (+17.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.2 (+17.2) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#251) | -2.9 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#272) | -0.58 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#279) | -0.83 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#251) | 0.474 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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