Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NIU +600 TOL -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +28 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -14.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -13.2 (-14.8) | 148.8 (+23.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.9 (-16.1) | 146.0 (+26.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.9 (-16.1) | 148.3 (+23.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.4 (-15.6) | 146.1 (+25.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TOL 79 – 69 NIU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | TOL 75 – 61 NIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOL 89 – 85 NIU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NIU 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | TOL 89 – 73 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 17-3 |
| Home | 3-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#312) | 7.9 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#290) | 1.61 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#294) | 1.76 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#288) | 0.585 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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