Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -900 LR +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -14.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -10.0 (-14.0) | 138.9 (-10.9) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -11.3 (-15.3) | 140.2 (-12.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -10.7 (-14.7) | 139.7 (-11.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -10.6 (-14.6) | 140.3 (-12.3) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2022 | TROY 69 – 62 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 3-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#173) | -11.6 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#113) | -1.32 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#111) | -1.68 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#117) | 0.422 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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