Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -9.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -7.5 (-0.5) | 133.1 (-2.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -8.0 (-1.0) | 136.1 (-5.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -7.8 (-0.8) | 135.4 (-4.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -7.6 (-0.6) | 134.7 (-3.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2022 | LR 66 – 62 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 3-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#188) | -10.6 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#127) | -1.10 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#126) | -1.46 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#149) | 0.444 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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