Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UK -550 FLA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +21 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UK -12.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -11.2 (+9.8) | 142.7 (-7.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -12.2 (+8.8) | 144.5 (-9.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -11.3 (+9.7) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -11.6 (+9.4) | 143.0 (-8.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | FLA 71 – 63 UK |
| Mar 7, 2026 | FLA 84 – 77 UK |
| Feb 14, 2026 | FLA 92 – 83 UK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UK 106 – 100 FLA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | FLA 94 – 91 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-0 | 13-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#4) | 10.6 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.30 (#8) | 1.63 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.33 (#6) | 1.90 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#8) | 0.555 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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