Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | UK -160 FLA +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +6 | 206 | Won |
| Massey | UK -2.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (+41.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -1.6 (+4.4) | 167.0 (+39.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -2.9 (+3.1) | 164.9 (+41.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -2.8 (+3.2) | 163.5 (+42.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -1.9 (+4.1) | 160.4 (+45.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | FLA 71 – 63 UK |
| Mar 7, 2026 | FLA 84 – 77 UK |
| Feb 14, 2026 | FLA 92 – 83 UK |
| Feb 1, 2024 | FLA 94 – 91 UK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UK 87 – 85 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#14) | 20.0 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#20) | 4.53 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#27) | 6.09 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#26) | 0.637 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 45.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.99 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 41.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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