Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Over |
| Money | UK -333 FLA +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +3 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -6.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 181.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.8 (-7.8) | 175.1 (+9.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -5.4 (-8.4) | 166.9 (+18.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -5.5 (-8.5) | 168.8 (+16.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -5.6 (-8.6) | 169.9 (+15.1) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | FLA 71 – 63 UK |
| Mar 7, 2026 | FLA 84 – 77 UK |
| Feb 14, 2026 | FLA 92 – 83 UK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UK 106 – 100 FLA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UK 87 – 85 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 85.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#22) | 11.6 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#15) | 1.98 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#19) | 2.63 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#25) | 0.600 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 44.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 16.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 40.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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