Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -625 UK +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -8.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -8.2 (-0.2) | 154.4 (-20.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -6.3 (+1.7) | 155.6 (-21.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -9.1 (-1.1) | 155.2 (-21.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -9.0 (-1.0) | 155.7 (-21.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FLA 84 – 77 UK |
| Feb 14, 2026 | FLA 92 – 83 UK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UK 106 – 100 FLA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | FLA 94 – 91 UK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UK 87 – 85 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 25.5 (#4) | 16.8 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#7) | 2.59 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.01 (#4) | 3.38 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#5) | 0.581 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 42.7% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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