Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -155 UK +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +2 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -1.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 179.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -2.7 (-4.7) | 169.3 (+2.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -2.5 (-4.5) | 162.7 (+9.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -1.8 (-3.8) | 166.9 (+5.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.3 (-4.3) | 168.9 (+3.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | FLA 71 – 63 UK |
| Mar 7, 2026 | FLA 84 – 77 UK |
| Feb 14, 2026 | FLA 92 – 83 UK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UK 106 – 100 FLA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | FLA 94 – 91 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 89.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#36) | 15.0 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#67) | 2.33 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#56) | 3.08 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#64) | 0.604 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 45.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 2.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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