Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | BU -800 AMER +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +18 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BU -14.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -10.9 (+7.1) | 134.3 (+17.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -11.1 (+6.9) | 138.8 (+13.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -11.0 (+7.0) | 139.8 (+12.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -10.5 (+7.5) | 136.9 (+15.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#207) | -13.1 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#210) | -2.17 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#212) | -2.52 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#207) | 0.386 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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