Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | XAV -115 CONN -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -0.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -1.2 (+4.8) | 141.4 (+0.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -1.6 (+4.4) | 142.6 (-0.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -1.4 (+4.6) | 142.0 (-0.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -1.4 (+4.6) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 13-6 |
| Home | 16-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#20) | 15.4 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#29) | 2.68 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#24) | 3.43 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#24) | 0.595 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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