Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -2100 XAV +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +25 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -14.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -14.3 (+10.7) | 146.0 (+15.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -12.7 (+12.3) | 146.4 (+14.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -13.5 (+11.5) | 147.1 (+13.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -13.5 (+11.5) | 145.7 (+15.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | CONN 87 – 60 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#12) | 5.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#5) | 1.03 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.90 (#6) | 1.50 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#4) | 0.511 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.