Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -125 CONN +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -0.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -1.1 (+2.9) | 144.2 (+3.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.8 (+3.2) | 143.0 (+5.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -1.0 (+3.0) | 144.0 (+4.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -1.1 (+2.9) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | CONN 87 – 60 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#48) | 14.6 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#69) | 1.98 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#65) | 2.84 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#102) | 0.563 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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