Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1000 XAV +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +5 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -13.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+33.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.3 (-7.3) | 146.9 (+36.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -12.6 (-7.6) | 143.6 (+39.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -12.1 (-7.1) | 146.7 (+36.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.4 (-5.4) | 146.9 (+36.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | CONN 87 – 60 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#13) | 9.0 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#35) | 1.30 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#23) | 1.93 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#80) | 0.539 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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