Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -2100 XAV +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +32 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -18.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -17.2 (+14.8) | 147.4 (+4.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -15.1 (+16.9) | 145.4 (+6.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -16.1 (+15.9) | 144.7 (+7.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -17.0 (+15.0) | 147.2 (+4.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | CONN 87 – 60 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 20.9 (#13) | 5.4 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.49 (#2) | 1.06 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.31 (#2) | 1.61 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.675 (#4) | 0.538 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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