Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -1600 XAV +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +27 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -10.7 (+16.3) | 144.8 (+2.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -9.6 (+17.4) | 144.6 (+2.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.9 (+17.1) | 146.7 (+0.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -9.7 (+17.3) | 147.5 (-0.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 9-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#4) | 9.9 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#3) | 1.17 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.47 (#3) | 1.83 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#7) | 0.545 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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