Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | XAV +550 CONN -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +23 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -13.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -9.5 (-13.5) | 141.3 (+15.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.4 (-11.6) | 138.9 (+18.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.6 (-12.4) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -11.1 (-11.9) | 141.9 (+15.1) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | CONN 87 – 60 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#117) | 21.1 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#95) | 4.85 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#107) | 6.99 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#85) | 0.681 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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